Monthly/Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Distributions

Description:

This product summarizes the distribution of average temperature or total precipitation for a specified month or 3-month season. The option is also available for the user to adjust the distribution based on actual or anticipated long-lead forecasts issued by the Climate Prediction Center.

The product provides the mean temperature or precipitation amount averaged over the available data during the period 1961 through 1990. (For the seasons Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb, the period is Nov 1961-Jan 1991 and Dec 1961-Feb 1991, respectively.) For temperature, the standard deviation for this same range of years is also provided. For precipitation, the median is displayed. The period of record minimum and maximum values and the years of occurrence are listed next. (For seasons crossing a year boundary, the year listed is the starting year.) The station period of record is displayed in the header. Next, the limits for the three categories, "below normal", "near normal" and "above normal" are displayed, along with the last year that fell into each category and what the value was in that year. These are based on a distribution fit to the years 1961 through 1990. The distribution is evaluated such that 33.3% of the years fall into each category. For temperature, the Gaussian distribution is used. For precipitation, a gamma distribution is used.

The routine then allows the user to adjust the distribution to favor a certain category by a given amount. The method employed to accomplish can be found in: Briggs, W.M., and D.S. Wilks, 1995, "Estimating monthly and seasonal distributions of temperature and precipitation using the new CPC long-range forecasts", Journal of Climate, Vol. 9, pp. 818-826. The output provides the adjusted mean and, for temperature, standard deviation. Values at certain points along the adjusted distribution are provided.


Price

The price for this product is $0.50/summary.

Sample

Climatological Distributions

Station: BOSTON LOGAN INT'L ARPT State: MA ID: 190770
Latitude: 42.36 Longitude: -71.01 Elevation: 20 feet
Station period of record: 1/1/1920-10/12/2000

CLIMOD Product: Seasonal Distributions Creation Time: 10/13/2000 14:51 EDT
Element: Average Temperature Units: degrees F
Season: December through February

Climatological Probabilities
1961-1990 Mean 31.0  
Standard deviation 2.13  
Record minimum 24.9 in 1933  
Record maximum 36.7 in 1932  
Category Limits
Category  Range of values   Year of last occurrence 
Below normal <= 30.0 1993 ( 27.8 )
Near normal 30.0 - 31.9 1995 ( 30.9 )
Above normal >= 31.9 1999 ( 33.0 )

Adjusted Probabilities - 'Above normal' category increased 10%
Adjusted Mean 31.4
Standard deviation 2.08
Percentile  Average Temperature 
5 28.0
10 28.8
20 29.7
30 30.3
40 30.9
60 31.9
70 32.5
80 33.2
90 34.1
95 34.8

For additional assistance, you can e-mail questions to CLIMOD Support (climod_support@nrcc.cornell.edu).